论人民币走向自由汇率的必然性

On the Inevitability of the RMB Free Exchange Rate

从2005年起,人民币就一直面临美国的巨大升值压力。人民币升与不升,一时之间议论纷纷。面对人民币缓慢而稳定地升值,市场在考验中国政府在博弈中取胜的决心,中国政府也在考验投机者继续拖下去的承受能力。从取胜这场博弈的角度分析,可以看出一条底线,就是人民币在一年内的升值幅度不会高于美元的利率。在这个底线之内,人民币在受控状态下逐渐接近使外贸平衡的比较均衡的汇率水平,中国的汇率改革就能够取得比较圆满的成功。面对这种现状,本人从研究中国的汇率改革的背景入手,思索人民币升值及其汇率自由化改革的应对之策。

Since 2005,the RMB has been facing enormous pressure to appreciate from the United States.To appreciate or not to appreciate,different voices are rife and rampant.In the face of slow and steady RMB appreciation,the market is testing the Chinese government＇s determination to win the game,and also the Chinese government continues to test speculators＇ the bearing capacity to stay the game.From the point of view of a base line to win this game,we can know that the RMB appreciation rate will not be higher than the dollar rate in a year.Within this bottom line the RMB under controlled conditions is moving closer to more balanced exchange rate that can promote foreign trade equilibrium.As a result,China＇s exchange rate reform will be able to achieve success more satisfactorily.Faced with this situation,I am pondering over the measures of RMB appreciation and free exchange rate reform by studying the background of China＇s exchange rate reform.