“6．25”湖北省暴雨过程观测及AREM数值模拟资料分析

Observational and AREM numerical simulation's analysis of heavy rain on Jun.25 in Hubei

利用多种观测资料对2005年6月25—27日的湖北省暴雨到大暴雨过程分析后认为:河套低槽与副热带高压的对峙,使系统移速缓慢,造成中低层切变维持和急流的发展,激发中尺度系统产生加强,造成了这场强降水。利用AREM数值模拟资料对螺旋度、湿位涡进行了诊断,揭示了暴雨过程中螺旋度、湿位涡的演变分布特征,分析表明:暴雨的发展与螺旋度、湿位涡有较好的对应关系,对于暴雨的预报和诊断具有指导意义。

By using many kinds of observed data, the heavy rain on Jun. 25 in Hubei has been analyzed. It points out that the confrontation between Hetao low trough and subtropical high made motion systems move slowly, the low-level and medium-level wind shear maintain, jet stream develop and intermediate scale system strengthen which led to the strong precipitation. By utilizing the AREM numerical simulation data analysis, the helicity and moist potential vorticity have been diagnosed. The analysis indicated that there is the relationship between the development of rainstorm and the helicity as well as the moist potential vorticity. It has the guiding significance to the rainstorm forecast and diagnosis.