GLM和GAM模型研究东黄海鲐资源渔场与环境因子的关系

Relationship between the resource and fishing ground of mackerel and environmental factors based on GAM and GLM models in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea

鲐是我国近海重要中上层鱼类,研究其资源变动、渔场分布与时空、海洋环境因子之间的关系有利于该资源的合理开发和利用。根据1998-2004年我国东黄海大型鲐围网渔业的生产统计和时间、空间、表温、表层盐度、表温梯度、表温的月差异等环境数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)和广义线性模型(GLM)对鲐资源丰度和环境因子的关系进行研究。结果表明,在南部海域,作业渔场集中在122.5°E^124°E、26.5°N^28°N,适宜表温26.5~30℃,适宜表层盐度33.3~34.3,并明显集中在锋区周边海域;在北部海域,作业渔场集中在122.5°E^125.5°E、33°N^37.5°N,适宜表温15~20℃,适宜表层盐度31.3~32.3,集中在冷水区边缘海域。相对资源密度指数大于0.5的海域为122°30′E^124°30′E、26°30′N^28°N,122°30′E^125°30′E、33°N^34°30′N和124°E^125°E、34°30′N^37°N。研究认为,南北不同海域鲐分布的适宜表温和表层盐度差异明显。影响鲐资源丰度的环境因子重要性依次为时间、空间和海洋环境。

Scomber japonicus and Scomber australasicus are important small pelagic fishes in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea. It is necessary for us to know the relationship between their fishery resources, fishing ground distribution and the factors such as time-space and marine environmental conditions, which are beneficial to exploit this resource. Based on the catch statistics of mackerel from Chinese large purse seine fleets and environmental factors such as sea surface temperature （SST）, sea surface salinity （SSS） and others, in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea from 1998 to 2004, the relationships between the abundance index and fishing ground distribution of mackerel and environmental factors are analyzed using generalized additive model （GAM） and generalized linear model （GLM）. The results indicated that the fishing ground are focused on the waters of 122.5°E- 124°E and 26.5°N - 28°N in the southern fishing area, in which this fish is concentrated near the waters of thermal fronts, and the optimum SST and SSS ranged from 26.5 to 30 ℃and from 33.3 to 34.3 respectively. While in the northern fishing area, the fishing ground is focused on the waters of 122.5°E- 125.5°E and 33°N - 37.5°N, in which this fish prefers to live near the colder water, and the optimum SST and SSS ranged from 15 to 20℃ and from 31.3 to 32.3 respectively. The relative abundance index more than 0.5 is distributed in the waters of 122.5°E- 124.5°E and 26.5°N- 28°N, 122.5°E- 125.5°E and 33°N - 34.5°N, 124°E- 125°E and 34.5°N - 37°N. It is concluded that it is obviously different for southern and northern fishing areas of this fish in the ranges of SST and SSS. The importance impacting mackerel resource abundance is temporal, spatial, environmental and other factors in order.