洪灾直接损失评估的不确定性研究

Uncertainty Study on Direct Flood Damage Evaluation

综合运用抽样调查统计推断法与经济计量模型对洪灾直接有形损失进行不确定性分析,包括洪水淹没特征、损失资产的底部高程和淹没面积、资产经济价值及承灾体损失函数的不确定性,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行随机模拟计算。提出的损失风险评估的新方法有助于减少洪灾损失评估误差,可为定量评估灾情、评价减灾效益、辅助决策提供科学依据。

The paper evaluates uncertainty of the direct, tangible flood damage with sample survey and statistical inference methods and econometric model. Flood damage evaluation includes four sources of uncertainty： a） the flood inundation characteristic, b） the foundation elevation of the asset and inundation extent, c） the economic value of assets at risk, d） the damage function of flooded body. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to a numerical solution of such stochastic problems. The new damage estimation approach is offered to help preventing errors in flood damage studies and find an appropriate start into the endeavour of applying flood damage evaluation as a basis for benefits of flood damage reduction and decision support.