移动GSM网话务量的ARIMA模型的建立及其预测

Modeling and predicting wirless GSM traffic load on the ARIMA model

本文用ARIMA模型对株洲移动GSM网的话务量进行了建模分析和预报,研究表明ARIMA模型不但适合株洲移动GSM网话务量的非平稳时间序列的特点,而且预测效果比较理想。结果表明,ARIMA(1,1,1)提供了较精确的预测结果,可以用来对未来几周的话务量进行预测,有一定的实际价值。

In this paper, we use ARIMA model to predict the network tragic load of zhuzhou branch of china mobile. The study experiments showed that the ARIMA model is not only suitable for the analysis of network traffic load in zhuzhou, which is not a balanced time series,but also its forecasting effect is exact.This paper concludes that the predict applying RIM （1,1,1）, which is exact and the RIM model can be used to forecast short = term of network traffic load, which is valuable to sorts extent.