洮河流域径流时间序列一致性及变异研究

Consistency and Variation Analysis of Runoff Time Series in Taohe River Basin

采用有序聚类分析法和非参数检验方法对洮河流域干流控制站近50a(1956～2005年)降水、径流时间序列的变化进行了综合分析,并对径流量序列进行了一致性分析修正,结果表明:降水与径流总体呈下降趋势,径流减少的趋势比降水减少的趋势更加明显,径流减少主要在甘南草原及森林区,降水减少主要在中游及降水高值区,同时,因人类活动的影响,径流序列1986年发生了跳跃变化,后段比前段相对减少了27.5%,经一致性分析修正,得出代表近期下垫面条件下洮河地表水资源量为45.86×108m3。

Based on the data observed at the control stations in the Taohe River Basin from 1956 to 2005, the change of precipitation and runoff time series was analyzed, and consistency of the runoff series was amended. The results show that the precipitation in the Taohe River Basin has reducing tendency during the 50 years, and the reducing tendency of the runoff is clearer than that of precipitation. Spatially, the runoff reduction mainly occurred in southern part of Gansu Province, and the precipitation decreased in the middle part of the basin. One reducing skip occurred on the hydrograph of runoff series in 1986, after that runoff decreased by 27%. After consistency amending, the yearly amount of surface water resources have been calculated as 4.586e＋009m^3 in the basin.