中国“藏粮于地”粮食生产能力评估

EVALUATING GRAIN PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY OF CHINA FOR "STORING FOOD IN LAND"

以"藏粮于地"战略思路为基本出发点,结合中国粮食生产的实际,构建了中国粮食现实生产能力评估框架,确定了当前"藏粮于地"的方式。认为粮食闲置生产能力构成"藏粮于地"粮食现状增产潜力,即现阶段我国土地的"藏"粮能力。利用该评估框架,运用全国土地利用变更调查数据、遥感、统计等数据,对中国"藏粮于地"粮食生产能力进行综合测算,结果显示:现阶段我国土地的"藏"粮能力为4 180.33×104t,占现实粮食产量的8%。如果变现这一"藏"粮能力,按人均粮食占有标准400kg计,粮食自给率可增加8个百分点,说明实施"藏粮于地"战略对我国粮食安全尤为重要,由此,提出了实现"藏粮于地"粮食生产能力的保障机制和措施。

From the point of stratagem of storing food in land, and combined with the Chinese actual situation, this paper designed the evaluation frame of grain practical productive capacity. The unused grain productive capacity is considered as constitution of storing food capacity currently. Using this evaluation frame, this paper calculated the grain practical productive capacity on stratagem of storing food in land. Result show： Practical productive capacity is 51 127.23 × 10^7 kg, and increment of grain productive capacity in future is 4 180.33 × 10^7 kg. The grain productivity capacity of ＂storing food in land＂ is 8 % of practical grain yield. The grain growth potential is large in our country, and increment by inereasing crewing index is 70%, which is the main part of the grain productivity capacity Of ＂storing food in land＂. Taking 400kg grain possessing for per capita, China＇s grain self- sufficient ratio can increase 8 percentages, which indicated that the food security is realizable in China under the current condition of economic technology and stratagem of storing food in land is especially important for the food security in our country. As a conclusion, this paper brings forward the guarantee mechanism and measure to realize stratagem of storing food in land. Namely, constructing economic conversation mechanism of grain comprehensive productivity, increasing cropping index and strengthening agricultural science and technology devotion.