温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展

Advance in New Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Change

IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)在第25次会议上决定,本身不再开发情景,而由专业的研究团队承担起未来第五次评估报告(AR5)所需要的开发情景任务,同时建议新情景用典型浓度路径RCPs来表示,以加速综合情景的开发进程,使气候模型同时能模拟排放情景。本文对此进行了介绍,并建议发展中国家和经济转轨国家更多的参与到新情景和新模型的开发中来,以推进农业气候变化影响评估、支持温室气体排放总量和排放权分配谈判的科学研究。

In part because of the growing number of scenarios developed within the professional research community,the IPCC decided during its 25th session （April 2006） that the research community would undertake development of scenarios for assessment in a possible AR5,while the IPCC’s role would be limited to catalyzing and assessing such work. And the IPCC decision indicates that RCPs （Representative Concentration Pathways） as stabilization pathways in order to emphasize that while they are based on existing scenarios in the literature that have underlying socio-economic assumptions and emissions outcomes,they are being selected on the basis of their emissions pathways and associated concentrations of radiatively active gases and aerosols,and their primary purpose is to provide these concentration pathways to the climate modeling community to produce new climate change projections. The RCPs should be ＂compatible with＂ the full range of emissions scenarios in the peer reviewed literature. In order to take into account the effects of emissions of all greenhouse gases and aerosols,the RCPs have been selected based primarily on their emissions and associated concentration outcomes,measured as the net radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The paper suggest DC/EIT to actively attend the development of new models and scenarios in order to advance scientific research and political negotiate of greenhouse gas emission and emission right distribution.