人口发展的参数预测模型

Parameter Forecast Model of Population Development

对我国人口预测问题进行了研究。引入了重要的人口预测指标,建立了预测人口所需的各项参数(出生率、死亡率、迁移率等)的预测模型,采用曲线拟合得到相关预测函数的参数,再对参数进行灰色预测的方法。通过建立人口发展方程的模型,实现对于人口总量和相关人口指标的预测。根据历史数据,利用模型对中国人口的状况进行了预测和分析。预测结果表明,到2041年,我国人口的峰值为14.9亿左右,同时我国的老龄化率和城镇化率将不断上升。

The population predicting model was discussed. An improved population predicting model was given and the population forecast index was defined. Some models were established to predict those parameters including birthrate, death rate and mobility by using the methods of curve fitting and grey predicting . The population development equation was established and the gross population and related index were predicted. Based on the history data, the current state of the population in China was predicted and analyzed. The result shows that the maximal population of China will be 1.49 billion in 2041, the rate of aging and urbanization will be increasing at the same time.