中国农产品出口贸易影响因素研究--基于贸易引力模型的面板数据

Research on Chinese Agricultural Product Export Trade Influence Factor

2006年中国农产品出口实现较快增长,全年农产品出口310.3亿美元,同比增长14.1%,农产品出口迈上新台阶。但近11年以来,中国农产品出口对世界农产品出口的贡献率一直处在3%左右的较低水平。中国农业企业还存在企业规模小、产品质量优势不明显和农产品加工水平低等一系列问题。要在世界农产品贸易战中把握主动权,应对挑战,研究分析影响中国农产品出口贸易的主要因素成为必然。选取2002-2005年中国农产品出口贸易情况作为研究对象,结合中国农产品出口贸易的特点构建中国农产品出口贸易引力模型,利用面板数据研究分析影响中国农产品出口贸易的主要因素,并提出相应的对策建议。

In 2006 China＇ s agricultural exports achieved faster growth, annual agricultural exports up to 31.03 billion US dollars, up 14. 1%. But nearly 11 years China＇ s agricultural exports to the world＇ s agricultural exports has been of low level, the contribution rate being of about 3%. There still are some problems such as small in size of agricultural enterprises, not evidently superior product quality and a low level of processing of agricultural products in China. It is necessary to analyze the main factors that affect China＇ s agricultural products exports to deal with the challenges in world agricultural trade war. Selecting China＇ s export trade of agricultural products from 2002 to 2005 as research subjects, combining with the characteristics of China＇ s export trade of agricultural products, using the panel data, this paper sets up the gravitational model of China＇ s agricultural products exports to analyze the main affecting factors of China＇ s agricultural products exports, and puts forward some suggestion and countermeasures.