未观测货币与流动性过剩

The Non-observed Money and the Excess Liquidity

未观测货币是被未观测经济活动吸收占用的货币,是构成全社会货币供应量的一部分。本文应用金融统计学原理界定未观测货币内涵,采用国民经济核算法,测估出中国未观测货币规模。在此基础上,对比分析未观测货币规模变化与流动性过剩的关系发现,未观测货币规模与流动性过剩具有一致性,是影响流动过剩的重要因素,主张中央银行建立未观测货币运行统计监测体系,提高货币政策效果。

Non-observed money （NOM） is a part of M2 that absorbed by non-observed economic activities. In this paper, the author defined non-observed money based on the financial statistics principle and estimated the scale of NOM using national accounts system method. Then the result indicates that NOM is one of key factors which cause excess liquidity and its size changes excess liquidity after doing comparative analysis of the relationship between excess liquidity and NOM size. We suggest that the central bank to promote money policy efficiencies by making up a supervisory and statistics system for non-observed money movements.