北京市海淀区细菌性痢疾与气象因素的关系

Relationship between incidence of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors

目的研究北京市海淀区细菌性痢疾发病与气象因素的关系;建立主成分多元线性回归方程,预测菌痢周发病数,并建立菌痢发病预警系统。方法收集北京市海淀区2004年1月1日～2006年12月31日菌痢周发病数和同期气象因素资料,建立数据库,SPSS11.5与SAS8.0相结合进行相关分析、主成分分析和多元线性回归分析。结果相关分析结果显示,菌痢周发病率与平均气温、水气压、湿度、最高气温、最低气温和最小相对湿度成正相关,与风速和日平均海平面气压成负相关。主成分多元线性回归分析结果显示,对菌痢发病数影响大的气象因素有日照时间、水气压、日平均海平面气压和温度。结论①海淀区菌痢发病率有明显的季节性,日照时间长、高温高湿、低压气候易引起菌痢的高发;②主成分多元线性回归建立的预测方程能预测近期菌痢的周发病数。

Objective To study the relationship between incidence of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors and predict its weekly incidence by multiple linear regression and principal component analysis, and set up an early warning system for it. Methods Data of weekly incidence of bacillary dysentery and daily meteorological data in Haidian District of Beijing during January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2007 were collected to establish a database for linear correlation, principal component and multiple linear regression analyses by software of SPSS 11.5 version and SAS 8.0 version. Results Weekly incidence of bacillary dysentery correlated positively with average air temperature, vapour-atmospheric pressure, air humidity, maximal and minimum air temperature and minimum relative air humidity, and reversely with wind speed and average daily atmosphere pressure at sea level. Principal component analysis showed some meteorological factors with greater influence on incidence of bacillary dysentery including sunshine time, vapour-atmospheric pressure, average daily air temperature at sea level and air temperature. Conclusion ① Incidence of bacillary dysentery in Haidian District presented obvious seasonal fluctuation. The longer sunshine time, higher air temperature, higher air humidity and lower atmospheric pressure were, the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery was.② An estimated equation based on principal component analysis and multiple linear regression could effectively predict weekly incidence of bacillary dysentery.