基于非线性计量经济学的人民币汇率走势分析

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Tendency Based on Nonlinear Econometrics

运用非线形计量经济学模型,对人民币汇率形成机制改革以来的人民币汇率的走势进行了实证分析。主要结论是:人民币兑美元的汇率走势比较复杂,呈现明显的非线性特征,可采用带三次方的时间趋势的LSTAR模型来刻画,其转换函数也是一个带三次方的时间趋势的指数函数。

By using the nonlinear quantitative analysis techniques, Examine the behavior characteristics of RMB Exchange Rate from the Reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to now. The main conclusions are： the behavior characteristics of RMB exchange rate characterized by LSTAR model with cubic time trend, are complex, with obviously nonlinear characteristic, and its transition function is exponential function with cubic time trend.