中国工业能耗变动原因分析

The Cause of the Change of Chinese Industrial Energy Consumption

通过对数平均D氏分解法（LMDI）将1997年和2002年中国工业能源消费及煤炭消费、石油消费分别分解为产量效应、结构效应和强度效应。研究结果表明，1997～2002年中国工业能耗的增长主要是高耗能重化工业投入产出规模的扩大引起的，工业结构的调整也对其起到了一定的促进作用，而工业各部门实际能源强度的降低则大大减缓了能耗总量的增长幅度。根据测算结果，笔者提出重化工业不应该是中国工业发展的方向。

Based on LMDI, this paper decompose Chinese industrial energy consumption, coal consumption and oil consumption of 1997 and 2002 into production effect, structure effect and intensity effect respectively. The results show that the increase in the consumption of industrial energy such as coal, oil during the period of 1997-2002 was mainly due to the expanding of the scale of input and output of high energy-consuming heavy chemical industry. The adjustment of industry also contributed to this increase to some degree. The decrease of the intensity of actual energy in industrial sectors greatly reduced the scale of increase of the overall energy consumption. The results of this study show that heavy chemical industry shouldn＇t become the focal point of the development of Chinese industry.