黑龙江省工业SO2排放与经济发展关系演变及成因分析

Relationship Between Industry SO_2 Emissions and Economical Development in Heilongjiang Province

经济与环境协调发展是建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的核心内容。通过对1981-2006年黑龙江省工业SO2排放与经济发展之间动态关系的分析,结果表明:1981年以来黑龙江省工业SO2排放量经历了先减后升的过程,排放强度显著下降,主要来源于能源生产、造纸及纸制品、非金属矿物制品等制造业部门,资源型城市的排放量占全省工业SO2排放量的50%以上,而综合性工业城市则占到1/3左右。EKC模型对工业SO2排放与人均GDP之间关系的模拟结果表明,二者之间呈现较为典型的U型关系。分解分析结果显示,规模效应、清洁技术效应是影响工业SO2排放的重要因素,其中清洁技术效应对工业SO2减排目标的实现具有决定性控制作用。

Corresponding development of economy and environment is the key for of building resource conservation and environment friendly society, and it has been paid the close attention to the regional sustainable development, also has become the hot spot and the focal point which the current government and the academic circles pays attention. Through analyzing the dynamic relationship between industry SO2 emissions and economical development in Heilongjiang Province, the results indicated that industry SO2 emissions showed the course of reducing - rising since 1981, and discharge intensity delined notably. The emission mainly came from manufacturing industry such as energy production, papermaking, paper products, nonmetal mineral products, etc. The emission of resource cities accounted for more than 50% of the total industry SO2 emissions in the whole Province, while the diversified industrial cities accounted for about 1/3. The method of EKC model was applied to the simulation of industry SO2 emissions and GDP per capita. The results showed that comparatively typical model U relation appeared between the two variables. The results of decomposition analysis showed that scale effect, structural effect, clean technology effect and technological effect of pollution control displayed greater contribution to industry SO2 emissions during the time intervals of 1993 -2000 and 2001 -2006. At the same time scale effect and clean technology effect were the two key factors. From effect representation, the scale effect was turning towards, while clean technology effect and technological effect of pollution control were negative, and structural effect was not clear.