重庆都市区PRED系统演进的定量分析

The Quantitative Evaluation of PRED System Evolution in Metropolitan Areas of Chongqing

重庆都市区PRED系统协调对重庆直辖市人与自然协调、城乡统筹发展、全面建设小康社会都具有重要现实意义。选取12个指标,运用定量方法对重庆都市区PRED各子系统及总系统在1997年至2005年期间的发展变化特点进行了剖析,并对PRED系统与子系统间以及各子系统之间的相关性进行研究,结果表明:重庆都市区PRED系统指数基本呈上升趋势,由1997年的0.7165增加到2005年的0.8704,系统协调性总体趋好;PRED系统发展受经济和人口子系统的推动明显,其次是受环境和资源子系统的影响。最后,提出了重庆都市区PRED系统优化的思路。

The harmonious development of PRED system in metropolitan areas of Chongqing has an important practical significance in harmony between man and nature, overall development of urban and rural, and building a well-off society in the Chongqing municipali- ty. This paper selects 12 indicators, analyzed the characteristics of development of each PRED subsystem, and the total system of met- ropolitan areas of Chongqing in the 1997 - 2005 by using quantitative methods. Also it studied on correlation between PRED system and each subsystem, and among each subsystem, and discusses the laws cf interaction between each system. The result shows ： The PRED systematic index in metropolitan areas of Chongqing has increased from O. 7165 to O. 8704 in 1997 ~2005. The index is basically on the rise and the systematic harmony turns up-and-up collectivity. From the pertinent analyzing data, we can know that, firstly, the PRED systematic status is obviously promoted by economy and population subsystem; secondly, is influenced by subsystem of environment and resources. Finally, the authors propose some solutions to optimization of PRED system in metropolitan areas of Chongqing.