浙江制造业发展的重点与思路--基于主导产业倒U型演进假说的分析

The Development Direction on Manufacturing Industry of Zhejiang Province:Based on the Converse-u Evolution Hypothesis of the Predominance Industry

本文根据1991～2004浙江、上海和中国相关统计数据，运用制造业占全国份额、产业部门增长率等方法分析了浙江省制造业发展在全国的基本情况，提出并验证了反映区域主导产业演进特征和过程的主导产业倒U型演进假说。结合浙江省经济发展的实际，确定了作为浙江当前产业发展重点的主导产业和支柱产业，提出了浙江省制造业发展的基本思路是资金密集、技术密集型产业优先发展，劳动密集型产业规划发展。浙江当前制造业发展的具体战略是“外引内孵”、“东扩西进”，注重择商引资，加强自主创新，实现区域产业的合理升级和转移。

This paper analyzes the basic status of Zhejiang manufacture by two methods, which include its proportion in china and its growth rate. It also proposes and verifies a converse-u evolution hypothesis of the predominance industry that reflects the evolution characteristic and process of the location predominance industry. This paper confirms the predominant and important manufacture industry of Zhejiang province, and proposes the significant ideas such as the intensive capital and technical industry developed in advance, and the intensive labor industry developed by the government economic program. In the end, according to authors, the development strategy of manufacture should pay attention to absorb FDI, intensify technical innovation, transfer some industry to developed and undeveloped area to exploit market and reduce cost.