我国1978-2007年通货膨胀原因辨析——一种源自Grange检验的否定

A Discrimination of the Common Causes in China:1978-2007

基于1978-2007年的数据,本文运用Grange检验法对我国改革开放三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因进行了辨析。通过对有关文献提出的相关变量进行检验发现:各个特殊阶段通货膨胀的影响因素并不是三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因;相反,适度的通货膨胀却对经济增长、进出口增加、固定资产投资总额以及平均工资的增长均具有正向促进作用,表明适度的通货膨胀在我国改革开放中是"非中性"的。

Based on the data from 1978 to 2007 in China, the paper studies the common causes of inflation since the reform and opening - up through the Grange Causality Test. After testing the variables in the references existed, we come to the conclusions： factors affected the inflation at special stages are not the common causes in the thirty years ; the moderate inflation promotes the increase of economy, imports and exports of goods and services; the total amount of investment in fixed assets and average wages which shows moderate inflation is not neural in the reform and opening - up process.