我国证券信用交易引入与股价波动相关性分析

Correlation Between the Stock Market Fluctuation and the Securities Credit Transaction in China

我国拟同时推出融资交易和融券交易,但融资交易量将明显大于融券交易量。因此,证券信用交易引入初期对我国股价波动的影响首先将表现为融资交易带来的股价上涨。从长期来看,在我国,证券信用交易对股价波动存在多样化的传导机制。引入证券信用交易可以在一定程度上平抑我国的股价波动,但我国投资者出于"跟涨杀跌"行为作出的融资融券将加剧股价波动。

Margin financing transaction and securities lending transaction are going to be introduced into China at the same time, but the trading volume of financing will be much more than that of securities lending. Therefore, in the early stage, the effect of securities credit transaction on the stock market fluctuation in China will be the growth of stock price resulted from financing transaction. In the long run, multiple mechanisms could bring various effects to Chinese stock market fluctuation, i.e. securities credit transaction could slow down fluctuation in Chinese stock market to a certain extent. However, securities credit transaction based on ＂Following the Herd＂ of the investors will accelerate the fluctuation in Chinese stock market.