基于灰色理论的河南省粮食生产预测

Grain Production Forecast of Henan Province Based on Gray System Theory

粮食生产的变化受很多因素的影响,其具有灰色系统的特征,可以应用灰色理论对其进行预测。基于河南省1978-2006年的粮食生产的相关数据,分析了粮食生产、人口、耕地的变化特征,并利用灰色理论对河南省未来14年内粮食产量、人口和人均耕地进行了预测研究,预测精度较高。结果表明,河南省未来几年内,人口数量和粮食产量呈不断上升趋势,但人均耕地面积却呈不断下降趋势。根据预测结果,提出了相对应保护耕地,提高粮食产量的对策,为政府部门制定政策提供科学依据。

Grain production is affected by many factors with the characteristics of gray system,forecasted by gray system theory. The paper analyses the change of the grain production,population and arable land,and forecasts their amounts in the following fourteen years based on the relate data from 1978 to 2006 in Henan province. The results show the population and grain production will meet a rising trend,but the per capita area of arable land has an opposite trend within the next few years. At last,the paper puts forward to some scientific advice for government to protect the arable land,increase the grain production.