金融发展的经济增长效应——基于扩展两部门模型的实证研究

Financial Development and Economic Growth——Empirical Research Based on Two-sector Model

借鉴Feder(1983)两部门模型的思想,构建了一个改进的包含金融部门和实际经济部门的两部门模型,分析金融发展对经济增长的影响机制。全国样本实证估计结果表明,以各省银行贷款总额为测度指标的金融发展水平与经济增长之间不存在显著的关系,以投向非国有部门的贷款总额为测度指标的金融发展水平与经济增长之间有比较显著的正向关系。从三大地区估计结果来看,以各省贷款总额来衡量金融发展水平时,西部和中部地区的金融发展对经济增长的效应不显著,而东部地区显著为正,说明我国中、西部地区的金融发展水平相对滞后;以投向非国有企业的贷款额来衡量金融发展水平时,金融发展对经济增长的效应在三大地区都是显著的,但显著性程度和大小从西部到东部依次增强,充分说明我国东部地区非国有企业的贷款效率较高。

The paper designs a two - sector model in terms of two - sector model idea of Feder（1983） and production function theory. The effect of financial development on economic growth has two kinds of forms： positive externality effect and negative financial restrain, The effect of financial development on economic growth depends on the trade - off between positive externality effect and negative financial restrain. Empirical research results show： fioancial development measured by aggregate loan is significantly positive correlation with economic growth in the Eastern region, but in the West and mediate region is not significant; financial development measured by loan in not- state- owned enterprises is in significantly positive correlation with economic growth in three regions, but the most significant in the eastern region.