转移支付对财政支出波动的平滑效应研究

Research of Smoothing Effect of Transfer to Fiscal Expenditure Fluctuation

转移支付能够熨平地区财政收入的冲击,防止财政支出的大起大落。文章首先分析了我国的财政体制沿革,然后建立转移支付平滑作用的理论模型,利用面板数据对转移支付对各省份财政支出波动的平滑效应进行检验,研究表明,我国净转移支付能够减少各省份80%左右的财政收入冲击,各省份对预算的紧控有利于转移支付平滑机制的发挥。市场化改革和财政分权均弱化了转移支付的平滑功能。同时,东部省份比中西部省份的收入冲击更容易受到净转移支付的影响,尤其是在分税制改革以后。考虑到财政支出平滑的地区差异,中央政府应尽可能采取与收入能力和支出需要相匹配的均等化的转移支付形式。

The fiscal transfer can iron area financial revenue impact and prevent great fluctuations of expenditure. The article firstly analyzes China＇ s financial system evolution, then designs fiscal transfer smoothing effect＇ s theoretical model to test the smoothing effect of the fiscal transfer to the various provinces expenditure fluctuations with panel data. The research indicates： China＇s fiscal transfer can reduce about 80% financial revenue impact. Tight budget control in various provinces is advantageous to fiscal transfer smoothing effect. The marketing reform and the tlnancial decentralization attenuated the fiscal transfer smooth function. At the same time, the east provinces＇ revenue is more easily influenced by the fiscal transfer than the mid - west province＇ s, particularly after implementation of tax - sharing system. Considering the regional disparity of expenditure smoothing, the central government should adopt the even equalization fiscal transfer system form which matches the income power with the disbursement as much as possible.