北京市用水结构预测分析

Forecast Analysis for Beijing′s Water Consumed Structure Changes

城市化进程给城市用水量与用水结构带来了显著的改变,通过研究北京市用水结构的发展趋势,为区域水资源的科学管理与合理配置提供依据.用水结构主要包括农业用水、工业用水、生活用水和生态用水四类,可将历年用水量作为一系列按照时间顺序排列的成分数据,运用球坐标变换的成分数据预测方法,研究了北京市用水量结构的动态规律,并对未来两年的用水量结构作出预测.

The influences of urbanization have great changes on water consumed amount and structure in cities. This paper discusses the developing trend of water consumed structure in Beijing, as the basic for scientific management and reasonable allocation of region water resource. Water consumed structure include agricultural water, industry water, life-water, and ecological water, which can be taken as the compositional data collected according to a serial time sequence. To analysis the dynamic features of each composition, a non-linear approach for dimensionality deduction and a predictive model based on polar coordinate change are proposed, and the structure for the future two years are predicted.