基于Tobin模型的中国货币供给与经济增长的实证分析

The empirical analysis about the money supply and the economic growth in China based on Tobin model

本文根据Tobin模型，基于中国1978年至2007年的年度数据时间序列，选取货币供给量、国内生产总值和价格水平等变量，运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应等数量方法分析中国货币供给封经济增长的作用。结果表明货币供给量与经济增长成正相关关系，货币供给增加会促进中国经济增长。

Based on Tobin model and the actual facts of China, this paper analyses the correlativity on the monetary supply and economy＇s development using co-integration method, Granger causality tests and impulse response function. At last, this paper demonstrates the conclusion that the monetary supply promotes economy＇s development efficiently.