中国向全球“出口”滞胀?

The new stagflation:an Asian export

全球债券市场对于20世纪70年代那种滞胀的担忧再度出现，并对这种可能性感到越来越焦虑。

Fears of 1970s-style stagflation are back in the air. Global bond markets are growing ever more nervous over this possibility, and US and European central bankers are talking increasingly tough about the perils of mounting inflation. Yet today’s stagflation risks are very different from those that wreaked such havoc 35 years ago. But there is a new threat to global inflation that was not present in the 1970s. But even the residual, or 'core', inflation rate in developing Asia surged to 3.8 per cent in April, more than double the 1.8 per cent pace of a year ago. Nowhere is that more evident than in China - the new engine of Asian output and exports. Chinese inflation has surged at an 8.3 per cent average annual rate over the four months ending May 2008, the sharpest sustained increase on a year-on-year basis since the mid 1990s. The risks of a new stagflation are mounting. But it will not be a replay of the 1970s. Like nearly everything else in the world these days, this one is likely to be made in Asia.