基于Logistic方程的大豆产量预报方法

Method for Forecasting Soybean Yield Based on Logistic Equation

基于Logistic方程建立大豆干物质累积曲线用来描述大豆干物质累积过程，由于气候条件处于非理想状态，因此对其干物质累积过程进行气象条件订正，并分析干物质累积量与气候产量的关系。在以上分析的基础上，建立大豆农业气象产量预测模式。通过计算分析温度和水分订正系数发现：在不同热量带、不同年份、不同发育时段，温度和水分订正系数不同，说明温度和水分条件是影响大豆生长发育和产量形成的重要限制因子。利用大豆主产区2004～2006年的气象和产量资料进行预报，预报精确度在95．9％左右，且预测产量与实际产量相关性较好，R^2在0．903～0．948之间，通过α=0．01的显著性检验，说明模型预测的产量比较准确，模型可用。

The curve of soybean dry matter accumulation was founded to describe the process of soybean dry matter accumulation based on Logistic Equation, The climatic factors weren＇ t generally optimum state, so correct meteorological conditions to the process of soybean dry matter accumulation, and analyze the relationship between the accumulated quantity of crop dry matter and climatic yield. Base on above analysis to establish Agro - meteorological Yield Forecasted model. It was found that the correction coefficient of temperature and water varied with heat zones, years and developing stages, which indicate that temperature and water are both important limited factors affecting soybean growth as well as final yield. By using meteorological and yield data during 2004 to 2006 in main soybean production areas, the accuracy of forecasting reached 95.9%, and correlation between forecasted yield and official yield was well, which indicate that the forecasted yield of the model is accurate, and the model can be put into use.