摘要
美国是世界最大的大豆生产国和出口国,开展美国大豆种植面积估算方法研究对我国大豆生产和国际贸易具有重要意义。利用美国大豆当年种植面积与上一年种植面积的关系,建立了美国大豆种植面积估算模型,并根据当年大豆生产政策和前3年种植面积平均波动量进行订正来估算美国大豆种植面积。模拟估算与估算检验结果表明:准确率基本都在97%以上,能够满足业务服务的需要。
America is the biggest soybean producer and exporter in the world. Estimating the soybean planting areas of America is important for soybean production and trade in China. The model was established based on the relationship of the soybean planting areas between the present and the previous year and was revised by soybean producing policy of the present year and the average fluctuations of the soybean planting areas for the three previous years. The results of simulation and estimation test indicated that the accuracy of the model was over 97% and could meet the needs of operational service.
出处
《大豆科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期423-427,共5页
Soybean Science
基金
中国气象局业务发展资助项目
关键词
美国大豆
种植面积
估算
American soybean
Planting areas
Estimation
