沈阳市流感监测系统评价

Evaluation on Flu Surveillance System in Shenyang

目的评价流感监测系统的真实性,时效性及稳定性。方法采用灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值(PVP)、阴性预测值(PVN)以及监测数据代表性等指标进行评价。结果系统的灵敏度、特异度、PVP、PVN分别为62.5%、86.4%、45.5%和92.7%;流感样病例(ILI)数量变化比流感样病例百分比(ILI%)的变化敏感(P<0.01);病毒检测耗时较长,报出结果平均需32d;2006年1-12月系统采样率为0.95%,病毒分离率为10.5%;从覆盖能力来看,全市大约覆盖了24%的人口。结论监测系统人口覆盖广泛,数据代表性较好。但受到流感病毒检测手段以及系统收集信息量的制约,难以及时发现流感暴发或流行。

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of flu surveillance system in Shenyang. Methods Using indexes including sensitivity, specificity, predictive value positive （PVP）, predictive value negative （PVN） and data representativeness to evaluate the effectiveness of the system. Results The sensitivity, specificity, PVP. PVN was 62..5 %. 86.4 %. 45.5 % and 92.7 % respectively. The case number of visits for influenza- like illness （ILl） was more sensitive than the percentage of visits for influenza- like illness （ILI % ） （ P〈 0.01 ）. Virus separation needed a long time, which averaged 32 days. The system sampling rate was 0.95 %, and virus separation rate was 10.5 %. Nearly 24 % of the city populations were covered Conclusions The population coverage of surveillance system is broad, and data representativeness is fairly good. Being limited by information collection and virus separating means, it is difficult to find flu outbreak in time.