藏北地区气候变化特征及其影响分析

Characteristic of Climate Change in Northern Tibet and Its Impact

藏北地区地域广阔、地势高,自然条件极为严酷,其环境状况直接影响到我国的江河、气候及生态环境,甚至对全球也有不容忽视的影响。本研究选取藏北地区有长期、连续记录的5个气象站点,分析藏北地区近40年来的气候变化特征,并对其可能影响进行分析。藏北地区近40年来温度上升趋势明显,尤其是最低温度的升温率达0.79℃.(10a-1),高于青藏高原的平均水平;降水的年际波动大,自20世纪90年代以后明显增多。近40年藏北地区的气候有暖湿化趋势,这将有利于该地区的动、植物生长,但是该地区冰川冻土面积大,气温升高会引起冰川退缩和冻土层融化,又将给藏北地区脆弱的生态系统带来不利影响。

Northern Tibet which is a vast, high altitude area and has a rigorous environment, is vital to the river, climate, and ecological environment of China. Five stations were selected to analyze the characteristics of the climate change in Northern Tibet, according to the availability of climate data, and then the characteristics of climate change trend for the last 40 years were analyzed. The temperature of Northern Tibet significantly increased, especially the minimum temperature which the increasing rate is 0.79℃·（10a）-1, the precipitation of Northern Tibet considerably fluctuated and significantly increased since 1990＇s. The climate change made the Northern Tibet warmer and wetter and more suitable for the lives there. On one hand, the climate change in Northern Tibet would advance the growth of lives there, but on the other hand, the warmer weather, especially the warmer winter, would thaw the permafrost and bring disadvantage to the fragile ecosystem in Northern Tibet.