一种空空导弹研制风险的分析方法

Risk Analysis Method in R&D of Air-to-Air Missile

如何应用系统有效的方法识别空空导弹研制过程中的风险,并加以有效的预防,是空空导弹研制过程中必须解决的重要问题。从软硬件成熟度、复杂度和依赖度方面,采用基于权重的Delphi方法对空空导弹各分系统研制的失败概率进行评价,再从技术、进度和费用方面对研制失败的后果进行分析,由此得到空空导弹研制的总风险。

How to identify risks that occur in the process of R＆D of Air-to-air Missile with systematic and effectively way, and how to prevent risks effectually are very important problems to be solved. In this paper a risk analysis method has been presented from three aspects of viewpoint： the soft ＆ hardware maturity, complexity and dependency. The failure probability of R＆D of Air-to-air Missile has been evaluated also by the priority based on Delphi method. Then consequence of fail to R＆D has been analyzed in the viewpoints of technology, schedule and cost; meanwhile a integrated risk of R＆D of Air-to-air Missile can be assessed.