产业升级视角下日本泡沫经济反思

Rethinking of the Japanese Bubble Economy from an Industrial Upgrading Perspective

由于日本金融体系的缺陷和基础研究的薄弱导致其产业结构从制造业向信息业升级失败,这使得其在贸易顺差快速扩大下所产生的过剩流动性失去产业投资渠道,最终必然涌向房地产和股票市场,从而造成日本泡沫经济的产生。所以,日本20世纪80年代泡沫经济的出现有其历史必然性,而错误的宏观经济政策不过是经济泡沫产生和破裂的加速器而已。尽管中国目前的情况与当年日本有相似之处,但一些深层次的不同让中国不会重蹈日本覆辙。

The deficiency in the Japanese financial system and the weak basic study impeded Japan＇s industrial upgrading from manufacturing to IT industries. As a result, the excessive liquidity generating from the expanding trade surplus finally found its exit to real estate and stock markets instead of material industries, boosting the Japanese bubble economy. This paper argues that the bubble economy in the 1980s is inevitable, while the improper macro - economic policies only accelerates the burst of this bubble. Although similar problems can be found in current Chinese economy, some certain differences determine that China will tread another path.