货币供给的制度内生与需求内生实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Institution and Demand Endogeneity of Money Supply

文章分别从基础货币投放的被动性、金融机构的"有价证券与外汇"资产渠道以及利率渠道对我国货币供给的内生性进行了实证研究。研究表明:我国货币供给具有较强的内生性,主要表现为基础货币供给的制度内生和信贷供给的需求内生。为提高当前紧缩性货币政策的有效性,货币当局必须稳定人民币汇率升值预期,提高法定存款准备金率、提高贷款利率尤其中长期贷款利率水平,以此削弱货币供给的制度内生和需求内生。

The paper makes an empirical study on the endogeneity of China＇s money supply respectively from the views of the passivity of base money supply, the asset of transmission channels of ＂portfolio investment foreign exchange＂, and the interest-rate transmission channel. It turns out that the money supply is obviously endogenous, revealed in the endogeneity of the base money supply and the demand endogeneity of the credit supply in China. To improve the effect of monetary policy, the authorities should stabilize the revaluation expectation of the RMB foreign exchange rate, raise the ratio of the required reserve, and raise the interest rate of the loans especial the middle-long run loans.