基于超越对数生产函数的能源产出及替代弹性分析

Energy output and substitution elasticity analysis based on trans-log production function

把劳动和资本之外的能源投入要素分解为煤炭、石油、天然气和电力的投入,建立了一个超越对数生产函数模型并基于岭回归进行了分析,估计了各能源投入要素的产出弹性、替代弹性以及相对技术进步差异.结果表明:能源要素对经济产出的总体规模报酬递增;电力和石油的经济产出率高于煤炭,并可以有效替代煤炭;技术进步速度依次为煤炭、石油、电力和天然气,符合中国能源消费以煤炭为主但努力提高石油比重的特征;天然气作为优质高效能源的特性没有体现可能与其比重较低以及更多用于生活部门有关.

The energy input factors, except labor and capital, were classified into the inputs of coal, petroleum, natural gas, and electric power. A trans-log production function model was established, and the parameters of the model were estimated by ridge regression. From the model, the output elasticity, substitution elasticity, and the difference between the technical progresses of different input factors were derived. Some conclusions are drown as follows： the economic output scale of energy input factors gradually increases on the whole, the economic output of electric power and potroleum is higher than that of coal, and electric power and petroleum can effectively substitute for coal; the technical progresses of different energy input factors were ranked as the order of coal, petroleum, electricity power, and natural gas, which accords with the characteristic of energy consumption in China, i.e. the energy consumption is mainly on coal, and it is attempted to raise the proportion of petroleum consumption; natural gas, as a high quality and high efficiency energy, does not play an important role due to the fact that its proportion in energy consumption is low and it is mainly applied to life related departments.