基于随机赋权法的水电项目综合评价方法及其应用

Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower projects based on stochastic weight assignment and its application

针对大型水电项目建设的特点,提出了水电项目的多目标综合评价方法.该方法采用随机赋权法确定权重,并与Monte-Carlo法模拟相结合,分析权重的变化对综合评价结果的影响,并可进行多方案比较分析.将该方法应用于金沙江乌东德水电站的正常蓄水位选择,结果表明该方法是可行的,可为规划阶段项目方案的选择提供决策依据.

In consideration of the characteristics of large-scale hydroelectric projects, evaluation method is established. Combining the stochastic weight assignment method Monte-Carlo simulation method, this method is used to analyze the effects of the changes a multi-objective comprehensive for weights calculation and the of weights on evaluation results, which can be used in comparative analysis of multiple programs. The method has been applied to the selection of the normal water level for the Wudongde Hydropower Station on the Jinsha River, proving its feasibility and providing a basis for choosing programs at the planning stage.