中国同日本贸易条件变化和波动情况的经验分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Variations and Fluctuations in China's Terms of Trade with Japan

文章在联合国统计司Comtrade数据库的基础上对中国同日本贸易条件的变化和波动情况进行了经验分析,结果发现:从1987-2006年,中国同日本的初级产品贸易条件有一定程度的改善,而整体贸易条件和制成品贸易条件则出现了明显的恶化;中国同日本贸易条件的波动主要是由中国对日本初级产品出口份额大的波动、中技术产品及高技术产品进出口贸易发展的不平衡以及高技术产品贸易条件的较大波动引起的,而减小中国同日本贸易条件波动的关键在于减小高技术产品贸易条件的波动。

Based on the Comtrade database of United Nations Statistics Division, this paper analyses the variations and fluctuations in China＇s terms of trade with Japan. Our conclusion is： From 1987 to 2006, the primary goods＇ terms of trade with Japan increased to some extent. However, the overall terms of trade and the manufactured goods＇ terms of trade obviously deteriorated. The fluctuations in China＇ s terms of trade with Japan are due mainly to the large fluctuation in export share of primary goods, the imbalance of trade of medium technology products and high technology products, the large fluctuation in terms of trade of high technology products. The key to reducing the volatility of China＇s terms of trade with Japan lies＇in decreasing the volatility of high technology products＇ terms of trade.