人口城镇化与农地非农化的因果关系——以湖北省为例

Causality between Urbanization and Farmland Conversion: A Case of Hubei Province

研究目的:人口城镇化与农地非农化的因果关系。研究方法:协整检验,Granger因果检验,误差修正模型。研究结果:(1)人口城镇化与农地非农化均为一阶单整序列,并具有协整关系;(2)人口城镇化与农地非农化之间存在从农地非农化到人口城镇化的单向Granger因果关系,而从人口城镇化到农地非农化的Granger因果关系并不显著;(3)人口城镇化关于农地非农化的弹性为0.53,即建设占用耕地面积每变动1%,人口城镇化将变动约0.53%。研究结论:研究区城镇化方式为先土地非农化再带动人口城镇化,土地非农化作为人口城镇化的引擎在推进城镇化速度方面非常明显,是一种粗放、摊大饼式的土地高消耗、人口低吸收的城镇化方式。因此,必须建立城镇集约化指数控制农地非农化速度和加快人口城镇化进程,以协调人口城镇化与农地非农化的关系,促进城镇化健康发展。

The purpose of the paper is to discuss the causality between urbanization and farmland conversion. Methods employed include co-integration test, Granger causality test and error correction model （ECM）. Results show that （I） urbanization and farmland conversion are both integrated of order one and there exists co-integration relationship; （2） there is single directional Granger causality running from farmland conversion to urbanization but the Granger causality running from urbanization to farmland conversion is not significant statistically; （3） Farmland conversion （RULC） elasticity of urbanization （URB） is 0.53, which denotes 0.53 percentage changes in the quantity of URB demanded per 1 percent change in RULC. Results reveal that farmland conversion leads to urbanization. Farmland conversion acts as an engine of urbanization, which speeds up the urbanization obviously. Urbanization in study area is quite extensive with high consumption of farmland and low absorption of population. It is concluded that we must control the speed of farmland conversion, accelerate the process of urbanization by establishing intensity indexes of urbanization in order to coordinate the relationships between urbanization and farmland conversion fundamentally and promote healthy development of urbanization.