城市相对湿度的直接模式输出修正预报的研制

Forecasting Relative Humidity for Cities by Modified Direct Model Output

给出了一种非统计的直接模式输出（ＤＭＯ）的修正预报方法，它无需任何历史资料（包括数值预报资料及观测资料），仅以我国国家气象中心实时Ｔ１０６模式的离地２ｍ之相对湿度预报格点值（１．１２５°×１．１２５°经纬度）为基础，经非线性插值、部分系统性误差订正及相对湿度的日较差修正后制作全国２６４个城市的相对湿度预报。其中北京、上海、香港等１０个城市的相对湿度预报经预报员把关后，每天晚间由中央电视台播出。

The approach for forecasting relative humidity for cities by Modified Direct Model Output(M DMO)is presented.The M DMO is not a kind of statistical means and does not use any historical data from the numerical weather prediction model or from the observation.The M DMO forecast is based on the 2 meter relative humidity forecast on grids form model T106,which is the current operational model in National Meteorological Center of China and developed from the previous model T63.The relative humidity forecast for 264 cities across China is made by computer going through reading the model forecast into the M DMO system,interpolating in non linear formula the forecast values from grids onto cities,reducing the systematic errors of the model forecast,and modifying the difference in relative humidity between the maximum and the minimum on the initial day.The final relative humidity forecast checked and revised by weather forecaster on duty for the ten specific cities including Beijing,Shanghai,and Hong Kong has been shown on CCTV at night every day since June 20,1996.