利用数值预报产品制作夏季降水分县分级预报试验

The Summer Rainfall Scale Forecast on County Level by the Use of Numerical Forecasting Products

将国家气象中心Ｔ６３和ＨＬＡＦＳ、武汉区域中心ＭＡＰＳ数值预报模式的短期降水预报分别插值到所属７个测站上，以此作为预报因子，运用灰色预测ＧＭ（Ｏ，ｈ）模型制作孝感市夏季短期２４小时降水分县分级预报。经１９９６年夏季业务应用，其一般性降水（小雨、中雨、大雨）分县预报质量较高、暴雨落区落点预报能力较强，取得了良好的预报效果。

By interpolating short range forecast rainfall value of the National Meteorology Center's T63 and HLAFS,and Wuhan Regional Meteorology Center′s MAPS to the subordinate 7 observatory stations respectively,and using the Grey Prediction Model,24 hours rainfall scale forecast on county level in Xiaogan city in summer was conducted.After the operational application at summer in 1996,it was shown that the quality of general rainfall scale forecast on county level was higher,and the capability of heavy rain area and site forecast was reliable.