厄尔尼诺现象与赤道西太平洋、印度洋、黑潮之间海温变化的相互关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship between E1 Nino Event and Change in Sea Surface Temperature in Western Tropical Pacific, Indian Ocean and Kuroshio Current

文中采用美国CODAS和国家气候中心出版的每月海温资料,对按国家气候中心出版的月监测公报所划分的赤道海区C区(0°～10°S,180°～90°W)、W区(0°～10°N,180°～140°E)和B区(0°～10°N,50°～150°E),以及西太平洋黑潮流区A区(25°～30°N.130°～140°E;30°～35°N,140°～150°E)之间的海温变化作了互相关分析.海区间互相滞后相关系数、交叉凝聚谱计算结果表明;C区与W区海温存在正相关变化关系,El Ni(?)o与W区海温之间凝聚谱最大值出现在5.29和2.14个月振荡周期,而且W区海温较El Ni(?)o提前一个月变化;C区与B区海温也为正相变化关系;El Ni(?)o与B区海温之间凝聚谱最大值出现在45、22.5个月振荡周期,而且B区海温先于El Ni(?)o3个月变化;C区与A区海温存在反相变化关系;El Ni(?)o与A区海温之间凝聚谱最大值出现在18个月振荡周期,而且A区海温先于El Ni(?)o3个月变化。作者认为用W、B、A区海温先于El Ni(?)o变化的特征,可预测El Ni(?)o现象的发生,以及该现象对东亚大气环流的影响。另外本文还分析出,在El Ni(?)o持续阶段,W区基本维持冷水,B区维持暖水,A区维持冷水的空间分布特征。

Based upon monthly sea surface temperature data from American CODAS and the Climate Monitoring Bulletin issued by the National Climate Center, correlation analysis of sea surface temperature changes among the areas C (0°-10°S, 180°-90°W), W (0°-10°N, 180°-140°E), B (0°-10°N, 50°130-140°E) 30°-35°N, 140°-150°E) is made. Division C, W and B are divided according to the Bulletin issued by the National Climate Center and division A lies in the area of Kuroshio current in the western Pacific. Calculating results of lag correlation coefficient among the divisions and cross spectrum prove that there is a positve correlation of sea surface temperature between divisions C and W . The maximum value of the coherence between El Nino event and sea surface temperature in division W appears in 5. 29 month and 2.14 month oscillation period. The change in sea surface temperature in division W occurs a month ahead of El Nino event. The correlation of sea surface temperature in divisions C and B is also positive. The maximum value of the coherence between El Nino event and sea surface temperature in division B appears in 45 month and 22. 5 month oscillation period. And the change in sea surface temperature in division B happens three months ahead of El Nino event. However, the correlation of sea surface temperature in divisions C and A is negative. The maximum value of the coherence between El Nino event and sea surface temperture in division A appears in 18 month oscillation period. And the change in sea surface temperature in division A takes place three months ahead of El Nino event. Using the characteristic that the change in sea surface temperature in divisions W, B and A happens ahead of El Nino event, the occurrence of El Nino event and its effect on Eastern Asia atmospheric circulation, and so forth, can be predicted. In addition, by analysis, this paper also proves that during the lasting period of El Nino event water in divisions W and A keeps cold, while water in division B remains warm.