对滇东地区强震幕式活动与强震趋势的探讨

EXPLORATION ON SEISMIC ACTIVE EPISODE AND TENDENCY OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH-EAST YUNNAN

滇东地区的强震活动有明显的周期性，这已为众多的地震学者的研究所证实，但进入第Ⅴ幕第５个强震活动时段后，仅发生了１次６．３级地震，从而改变了本世纪以来前４个强震活动时段的强震活动次数（最少２次）与强度（≥６３４级），这就引起人们的关注，是否再次发生比６．３级更大的强震？一直困扰着人们。所以许多学者提出不同的认识企图解释这一问题。作者就是在上述认识的基础上提出了新看法并对滇东地区的强震活动趋势进行了探讨。

There exists a clear periodicity for strong earthquake activity in north-east Yunnan, which is proved by studies of many seismologists. However, since entering the fifth stage of Vth episode, only one earthquake of M=6.3 occurred, which has changed the active times (at least 2 times) and strength (≥6 3/4), lasting in the previous 4 stages since this century. The fact has aroused attention that if any earthquake with M≥6.3 would occur in this area that puzzles people all the time. Therefore, many seismologists have been trying to explain the problem. On the basis of the understanding mentioned above, the author has provided a new opinion, and made an exploration to tendency of strong earthquake in north-east Yunnan.