电力负荷预测与气象指数关系研究

The relation of load characteristics and meteorologic condition

本研究通过统计方法分析了保定市、阜平、涞源和涿州4个区域的负荷特点以及波动的规律性,引入生物气象学中的实感温度、寒湿指数、温湿指数、舒适度指数4个指标来综合衡量气象因素对电力负荷的影响。给出了电力负荷与各指标的比值曲线,通过同一区域的曲线比较说明了引入各气象指数的合理性,通过不同区域的曲线比较说明了不同区域的负荷与气象指数关系的差异,提出网格化建立负荷预测模型的必要性。

The load characteristics and the object rules in the fluctuation in the power supply in Baoding, Fuping, Laiyuan and Zhuozhou were analyzed by mathematics statistics method, measuring the impacts of meteorological factors on power loads by introducing the four index in biological meteorology in this study such as effective temperature, moisture- temperature, cold-moisture and comfort, thereby describing the relation curve between weather and power load. In addition, this paper verifies the reasonableness of introducing the above-mentioned meteorological index by comparing the curves for the same area and illustrates the discrepancies in the relation between weather and power loads by comparing the curves in different regions, on the basis of which the paper studies the necessity of setting up a grid type power load forecasting.