首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测

Maximum entropy spectrum analysis to the seismic time series and seismic risk prediction in Capital Area

利用最大熵谱分析方法和最大熵原理方法，对首都圈（北纬38°～42°，东经113°～120°）1484年以来发生5．0级以上地震的时间序列资料进行了分析，结果表明，首都圈地区历史上5．0级以上地震存在12．9年的卓越周期，并且在今后50年内，发生5．0≤Ms〈6．0和6．0≤Ms〈7．0地震的概率分别是0．9907和0．6916，发生7．0≤Ms〈8．0地震的概率较低，只有0．2564发生Ms≥8．0地震的概率最低。仅为0．0718。

The time series data of over M5.0 earthquakes since 1484 in Capital area are analyzed with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and maximum entropy principle method. The results show that there is a 12.9 years predominant cycle in the series. The probability for 5.0≤Ms〈 6.0 and 6.0≤Ms〈 7.0 earthquake in the next 50 years is 0. 9907 and 0. 6916 respectively. The probability for 7.0≤Ms〈 8.0 earthquake is relatively lower, just 0. 2564. The probability for Ms≥8.0 earthquake is the lowest, merely 0. 0718.