电器无失效数据的Bayes可靠性分析

Bayes Reliability Analysis of Electrical Appliances′ Zero-failure Data

通过利用分布函数的凸凹性合理的构造了无失效数据(ti,ni)在ti时刻失效的概率pi=p{Tti}的一类先验分布,利用贝叶斯定理给出了无失效数据概率的一种估计.并根据算例验证该估计是合理的.

Through the use of the convex and concave character of the distribution function, properly constructed a priori probability distribution of the probability Pi = p{T ≤ti} of the zero-failure data （ti, ni） failing at the time ti. Bayes theorem was adopted to give an estimation of the probability of zero-failure data. Also. mathematical examples have been introduced to prove this estimation is reasonable.