西安市土地利用动态变化及其Markov预测

Land use dynamic change in Xi'an and its Markov forecast

土地利用是人类经济活动在地理空间的集中体现。基于对西安市所辖区县的历史统计资料分析,发现西安市土地利用近12年来变化比较剧烈。以2006年的土地利用为基态,建立马尔可夫(Markov)模型,对西安市未来土地利用变化进行了预测分析,揭示了土地利用数量变化的幅度、速度以及空间变化的区域差异、结构差异等特征。阐明了西安市12年间土地利用变化的特点,根据城镇土地利用总量平衡结构规划的要求,建议相关部门采取得力措施,加强城镇土地集约利用,切实有效保护耕地。

Land use is the main embodiment of human economy activities in geographical space. Under the support of historically statistic data of Xi＇an city, our researches find the big change of land use of Xi＇an in these twelve years. And according to the land use data of 2006, a Markov chain model is used to forecast the land use structure change. The result indicates the range, the speed of land utilization quantity change, the regional difference and the cultivated land is 12 years. According to the requirement of city land cultivated quantity banlance and structure plan, a more effective land use management policy must be implemented to protect the limited cultivated land in Xi＇an.