一种新的预测油田产量变化的方法──剩余可采储量采油速度法

RATE OF OIL PRODUCTION OF REMAINING RECOVERABLE RESERVES METHOD - A NEW METHOD FOR FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF AN OIL FIELD

根据大量的油田开发资料，总结出了水艇油田可采储量采油速度、剩余可采储量采油速度随可采储量采出程度变化的模式；并通过理论与实际资料证明，在油田产量递减阶段，剩余可采储量采油速度随可采储量采出程度的变化有上升、稳定和下降3种情况。根据我国42个地下原油粘度为3～30mPa·s的水驱砂岩油田的数据，得到了计算剩余可采储量采油速度变化率的回归公式。提出了用于预测油田产量变化的剩余可采储量采油速度法（RRRM）。计算实例表明，RRRM的计算精度高于Arps递减曲线法（ADCM），与传统的方法相比，具有可以考虑可采储量变化与调整措施的影响等许多优点，因而有推广价值。

In light of a vast amount of data about oilfield development, a pattern of rate of oil production of recoverable reserves and rateof oil production of remaining recoverable reserves (RRR) changing with recovery percent of recoverable reserves forwateffiooding oil fields has been summarized. This pattern shows and proves through theory and practice that the change ofrate of oil production of remaining recoverable reserves with recovery percent of recoverable reserves has three modes: rising,steadving and dropping during production decline stage. Based on data from 42 chinese waterflooding oil fields with an oilviscosity range of 3 to 30mPa. s in formation, a regression formula for calculating changing rate of RRR has been obtainedand the rate of oU production of remaining recoverable reserves method (RRRM) to forecast oil production of an oil field hasbeen put forward in this paper. An example shows that RRRM is more accurate than Arps decline curve method (ADCM).Comparing with traditional method, RRRM has many strong points that can consider the change of recoverable reserves andthe effect of adjustment measures, and hence can be widely utilized.