鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害规律分析

Analysis on flood disaster characteristics in Lake Poyang region

根据1950-2002年的鄱阳湖洪水与洪水灾害损失资料,建立年最高洪水位与洪灾损失的相关模型;运用概率统计的理论与方法,研究了鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害与灾害损失的统计规律,将鄱阳湖洪水、鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害的受灾面积划分为6个等级,揭示鄱阳湖区洪水主要集中于10年一遇(3级)以下;一般洪水为2-5年一遇,在统计资料内,共发生过24次,造成的损失只占到历年总损失量的约1/3;5年一遇以上的洪水虽然只发生过7次,但是其损失却占历年洪灾总损失的约2/3.采取综合治理措施,降低鄱阳湖洪水位,并进一步提高鄱阳湖区圩堤防洪能力是减轻鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害损失的有效途经.

Based on the data of flood peak levels and flood disaster losses in Lake Poyang region during the period of 1950-2002, this paper established the correlation model between the annual flood peak levels and flood disaster losses, analysed the statistical pattern and regularity of flood disasters and flood disaster losses in Lake Poyang. A scheme of 6-grades was established for floods and areas of flooing in the Poyang region, which revealed that most of the floods occurred once every 2-5 year and are smaller than Grade 3 flood （once every ten year）. Lake Poyang had 24 floods during 1950-2002, which accounts 1/3 of total flood disaster losses of this period. Although, Grade 4 floods （once every 5 year） were recorded only 7 times, they account 2/3 of total flood disaster losses. We believe, to low peak flood levels by comprehensive and integrated measures and management, and to increase the capacity of flood prevention for the dyked lakeside farmland are the effective options for mitigation of flood damages and losses.