人口红利与中国的经济增长

Demographic Dividend and China's Economic Growth

社会追加的人口生产性为经济增长贡献一个具有促进作用的人口红利。本文所建立的人口红利对经济增长影响的数学模型,以及以其定量地计算人口红利对中国经济增长的影响表明:人口红利对1978—2006年间中国的经济增长由阻碍作用转变成为促进因素,对GDP的贡献量与贡献率均呈持续增长的趋势,进入21世纪后,中国每年实现的GDP中人口红利的贡献份额已超过10%。然而,人口红利的一次性、人口迁移与人口红利的区域间转移、人口红利为谁所得和人口负债由谁承担等问题,都是值得我们重视和研究的。

Demographic productivity supplemented by the society contributes a promotive demographic dividend to economic growth. The demographic dividend, with its calculation of its influence on China＇s economic growth shows that it became a promotive factor instead of a negative one to China＇s economic growth from 1978 to 2006, the quantity and rate of its contribution to GDP is increasing continuously and since the 21 ^st century, the portion of its contribution to GDP each year in China is over 10%. However, what deserve our attention and research both in theory and practice are the problems such as the transience of demographic dividend, who will get the demographic mobility and regional transferring of demographic dividend, demographic dividend and who will shoulder the demographic debt.