黄河三门峡段基于马尔科夫模型的水质预测

The water quality forecast of Sanmenxia Reach based on Markov model

水质变化趋势预测是维护和管理当前水质状况的重要依据,影响水质的有物理学、化学、水力学、生物学、气象学以及人类活动等多方面的因素,在时间和空间上存在相当多的影响变量。现有的基于数学表达式的水质预测模型很难将这些因素都考虑进去,而且预测的是一个具体的数值。利用马尔可夫链预测水质所处状态概率,实质上是预测水质指标带有一定置信水平的置信区间,在可以完全满足实际需要的前提下,扩大了预测的范围,相对地提高了预测的精确度。介绍了马尔科夫模型的基本原理,并且将其应用到黄河三门峡河段的水质预测中,总体效果基本满意。

The prediction of the water quality changing trend is the important basis for the maintaince and management of the water quality at present. The factors infcuence the water quality indude physical, chemical, hydraulics, biological, meteorologital and human activity and so on. There are a considerable number of variables in time and space, so it is difficult for the existing mathematical expression model to consider all the factors to predict the water quality which is a specific numerical value. Using the Markov chain to predict the water quality which has expansed the prediction scope and improved the occuracy, can fully satisfy the acutal needs by putting the indicators into a confidence interval. The principles of Markov model have been introduced briefly. The prediction results of Sanmenxia water quality in Huanghe River are basically reasonable.