江苏省气象服务效益研究(Ⅱ)行业气象服务效益评估

STUDY OF THE BENEFIT OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE (Ⅱ)EVALUATING OF THE BENEFIT OF PROFESSION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

行业气象服务效益虽有很多可以估量的典型事例，但更多的则是潜在于各行各业效益之中的难以测算的社会、经济、环境和生态效益，目前还没有一种完善的评价方法。本文采用德尔斐专家评估法，通过对分布于江苏省各市的一百多位各行业专家咨询调查，由108位专家有效投票的定性评估，得出了一个较为公正、客观、科学、可信的定量结果——江苏省1992年行业气象服务的效益为27．7347亿元，效益投资比为116：1，这项研究成果对于社会各界认识气象服务的价值具有重要意义。

Although we can assess the benefit of profession meteorological service in many representative cases,in fact,most of them is potential in the societal .economic. environmental andecological benefit in all trades and Professions, and we still have not found out a perfectmethod to evaluate it by now. In this article,according to the 108 valid votes of the specialistswe consulted in all trades and professions all over Jiangsu,we use the method of specialist evaluating and come to,a more judicial.objective.scientific and credible quantitative conclusion. In 1992,the benefit of Jiangsu profession meteorological service is about 2. 77 billions'yuan,and the ratio of the benefit and investment is 116: 1. It's very important for the societyto understand the effect of meteorological service.