摘要
构思了一种跟踪式后续显著地震的模糊预测方法。以我国1996年以来的127个Ms≥5．0地震序列为原始资料样本，预先对地震类别序列作了模糊化处理，并以模糊聚类软划分为处理方法对样本进行了内检。结果表明，跟踪式报准率可达69％；自然语言含义下的跟踪式报对率达91％，效果比目前常用的方法有所提高，对显著地震发生后的趋势跟踪有一定实用价值。
A trace type fuzzy method for Predicting follow-up significant earthquakes was worked out.Taking the seismic sequences of 127 earthquakes with Ms≥ 5. 0 since 1996 in China as the original samples of data, the inner-check was carried out for the samples by the processing method of fuzzy cluster soft division, and the fuzzy processing was conducted for earthquake categ0ry sequence beforehand.The inner-check results show that correct prediction rates both time and megnitude can be reached to 69 % and the trace type correct prediction rates under the meaning of natural language up to 91%, being more effective than usual method. This method is of some practical values for trend analysis after the occurrence of a significant earthquake.
出处
《华南地震》
1997年第3期8-16,共9页
South China Journal of Seismology
关键词
地震预报
模糊聚类分析
显著地震
地震序列
Earthquake prediction, Fuzzy cluster analysis, Significant earthquake Soft division
